Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

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  KWNS  22Jul14 05:00Z  

    
    619 
    ACUS01 KWNS 220546  WSI DDS:220606
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 220545
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1245 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
    
    VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD
    TOWARD SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...
    
    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
    REGION...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CLUSTER OF
    SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION...WITH MORE
    ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
    RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO ERN MT. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
    WILL FLATTEN THE NERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...MOVING FROM THE UPPER
    MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW
    WILL DEEPEN IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO...WITH A
    COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN MO AND NRN KS.
    ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
    RESIDE...WHICH WILL FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
    
    
    TO THE W...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
    THE UPPER HIGH...AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE BC COAST.
    ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
    OREGON...ID...WRN MT AND FAR NRN NV.
    
    ...NRN KS/SRN NEB EWD ACROSS IL AND INDIANA...
    A MARGINALLY-SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
    FROM NRN WI NWD ACROSS WRN UPPER MI BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
    LATER IN THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SEWD FROM NRN IL INTO NRN
    KS...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. VERY HOT AIR WILL EXIST
    OVER KS...WHERE SEVERE DIURNAL STORMS CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS AND
    LARGE HAIL WILL FORM NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
    AND EVENING...OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE
    FRONT FROM NRN MO ACROSS NRN IL WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT. SEVERAL
    MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS
    ACROSS IL/IND DURING THE EVENING WITH A WIND THREAT.
    
    ...BLACK HILLS REGION...
    A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM SK/MB SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT
    SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO A SELY UPSLOPE DIRECTION BY LATE
    AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
    BENEATH COOL PROFILES AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
    MOISTURE REMAINING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND COOL
    TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR CELLULAR ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF MAINLY
    LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH TIME.
    
    ...OREGON...ID...WRN MT...NRN NV...
    SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL MATERIALIZE OWING
    TO AN INTENSIFYING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
    THE PACIFIC TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
    HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND AREAS OF AROUND 500 J/KG
    MUCAPE. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
    HAIL CORES AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING.
    
    ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 07/22/2014

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