Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  17Apr14 12:00Z  

    
    789 
    ACUS01 KWNS 171243  WSI DDS:171243
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 171241
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
    
    VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
    FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    MULTIPLE FLOW STREAMS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE STRONGER
    NRN STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A MORE FRACTURED
    SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA TO THE GULF COAST.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NW GREAT
    BASIN...ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE
    OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW.  WITHIN THE
    SRN STREAM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM NE MEXICO
    AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM THE SRN
    HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
    MEXICO THIS MORNING...IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTENSIVE
    THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY.  THE
    NWRN AND NRN FRINGES OF THIS DEVELOPING CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO
    BRUSH THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE.
    
    ...S FL TODAY...
    A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY AND BECOME
    DIFFUSE.  A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY /70-72 F
    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS S FL WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/. 
    LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP FOCUS THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
    WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. 
    HOWEVER...STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION COULD BE AIDED BY
    RELATIVELY STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW/VENTING ALOFT...WHILE SEASONABLY
    COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -12 C AT 500 MB SUGGEST SOME
    RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
    
    ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/17/2014
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  17Apr14 12:00Z  

    
    789 
    ACUS01 KWNS 171243  WSI DDS:171243
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 171241
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
    
    VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
    FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    MULTIPLE FLOW STREAMS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE STRONGER
    NRN STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A MORE FRACTURED
    SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA TO THE GULF COAST.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NW GREAT
    BASIN...ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE
    OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW.  WITHIN THE
    SRN STREAM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM NE MEXICO
    AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM THE SRN
    HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
    MEXICO THIS MORNING...IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTENSIVE
    THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY.  THE
    NWRN AND NRN FRINGES OF THIS DEVELOPING CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO
    BRUSH THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE.
    
    ...S FL TODAY...
    A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY AND BECOME
    DIFFUSE.  A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY /70-72 F
    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS S FL WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/. 
    LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP FOCUS THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
    WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. 
    HOWEVER...STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION COULD BE AIDED BY
    RELATIVELY STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW/VENTING ALOFT...WHILE SEASONABLY
    COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -12 C AT 500 MB SUGGEST SOME
    RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
    
    ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/17/2014

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