Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

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  KWNS  22Aug14 00:00Z  

    
    385 
    ACUS01 KWNS 220050  WSI DDS:220050
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 220048
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0748 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014
    
    VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
    NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING
    WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
    
    ...OH VALLEY...
    
    WV IMAGERY AND LONGER RADAR LOOPS DEPICT MID-LEVEL VORT OVER SRN
    LOWER MI MOVING SEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE ERIE.  SWRN EXTENSION OF
    ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
    UPWARD GROWTH TO CONVECTION OVER NERN IL/NWRN INDIANA LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS OVER NRN INDIANA
    AND SHOULD PROGRESS WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW TOWARD THE OH RIVER
    LATER THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
    THREATS.
    
    ...CNTRL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
    
    STRONG HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE
    ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN KS.  THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD
    SPREAD SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB THIS EVENING
    WITH A PROPENSITY TO BECOME ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. 
    WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN NEB INTO IA/NRN IL
    OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS
    DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND
    WEAK UVV SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.  DESPITE THE
    MODERATE INSTABILITY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION 5 PERCENT SEVERE
    APPEARS WARRANTED FOR WIND/HAIL.
    
    ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
    
    WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
    THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
    DEVELOPED INVOF THIS FEATURE AND OVERTURNING HAS NOW STABILIZED MUCH
    OF THE REGION.  A FEW ROBUST STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PIMA COUNTY
    BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
    
    ..DARROW.. 08/22/2014

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