Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  19Apr14 19:00Z  

    
    622 
    ACUS01 KWNS 191941  WSI DDS:191942
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 191940
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0240 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
    
    VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND
    SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED
    SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED PER PRIOR FORECAST
    REASONING...AND THUS LITTLE CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE OUTLOOK ATTM
    ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY MINOR LINE ADJUSTMENTS.  EXCEPT FOR AN
    ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING INVOF THE FL E
    COAST...OR LATER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FOCUS FOR
    ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK REMAINS OVER FAR W TX AND ADJACENT SERN
    NM.  HERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
    MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE
    ACROSS/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE 5% RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
    
    ..GOSS.. 04/19/2014
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TWO-STREAM...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
    EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THE SRN BRANCH...NE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
    SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OFF THE GA CST BY EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
    TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA BROADENS AND REACHES ERN NM/FAR W
    TX. WITHIN THE LATTER TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE NOW NEARING EL PASO
    SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLNS THIS
    AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NOW OVER NRN SONORA CONTINUES
    ENE INTO SRN NM.
    
    AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OFF THE NE FL CST
    LATER TODAY. DEEPER WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE
    LOW HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE E CST OF FL...BUT A
    SHALLOWER/REINFORCING WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS NRN AND
    CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. IN THE CNTRL U.S...WEAK COLD
    FRONT ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ND SHOULD SETTLE S/SE INTO
    SRN NEB/NW KS BEFORE BECOMING STNRY LATER TODAY/TNGT.
    
    WHILE TSTMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR OVER THE NATION
    THIS PERIOD...SOME RISK FOR SVR WEATHER WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION
    WITH THE UPR SYSTEMS AFFECTING FAR W TX/SRN NM. A MORE
    CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG
    FRONTS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND OVER ERN FL.
    
    ...SRN NM/FAR W TX TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
    TSTMS NOW OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE
    OF SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY WITH
    CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND THE INFLOW OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
    ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLNS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR
    IMPULSE/ASCENT WILL MOVE NE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN
    LATER TODAY...GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND
    RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
    STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AN
    ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH THE SAME REGION
    TNGT/EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM VORT APPROACHES FROM NRN SONORA.
    
    ...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFN/EVE...
    SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
    STALLING FRONT OVER NW KS AND SRN NEB. BUT THE REGION LARGELY WILL
    BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THIS EVE. AND...WHILE LOW TO
    MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR STORMS...MOISTURE
    WILL BE LIMITED. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH MAY OCCUR
    TNGT/EARLY SUN OVER PARTS OF NEB AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES AND AS W
    TX UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLD INSTANCE OF
    MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT COVERAGE
    JUSTIFIES INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITIES.
    
    ...ERN FL THIS AFTN...
    ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD
    FRONT CROSSING E CNTRL FL THIS AFTN BEFORE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
    OFFSHORE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG
    SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO COULD GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
    TO POSE A BRIEF RISK FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND. THE OVERALL
    THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 5%
    PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGESTED BY AREA VWP
    DATA.

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