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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  28Aug14 05:00Z  

    
    568 
    ACUS01 KWNS 280559  WSI DDS:280628
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 280557
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1257 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014
    
    VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG A
    STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE
    SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL...BUT MORE WIDELY
    SCATTERED...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEYS.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
    CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST
    PERIOD...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
    IMPULSES.  AS ONE OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
    FRONTAL ZONE MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
    COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FARTHER WEST...THE FRONT IS
    EXPECTED TO STALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE
    MISSISSIPPI/MISSOURI VALLEYS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO ADVANCE OR
    REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING
    SLOWLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
    
    THIS LATTER FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
    HIGH LEVELS WESTERLIES...GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  ASSOCIATED TROUGHING AT LOWER/MID LEVELS IS
    FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...BETWEEN
    MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND NEAR
    THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK IMPULSE
    EMERGING FROM IT WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI
    VALLEY...TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.  AS IT DOES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
    SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS AHEAD OF THE LARGER
    SCALE TROUGHING...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF
    THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL BECOME
    INCREASINGLY WEAK.
    
    ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
    WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOW FORMING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS
    EXPECTED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT OF THE STALLING FRONTAL
    ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
    QUESTION THAT A STRONGER CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD FORM ON THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  IF THIS
    OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PARTS
    OF SOUTHERN IOWA...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
    ILLINOIS...BEFORE THE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
    MIGRATING NORTH OF THE FRONT...TOWARD THE UPPER
    MIDWEST...DIMINISHES.
    
    LATER IN THE DAY...A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
    PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM EASTERN
    NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
    FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
    FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE
    PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000
    J/KG.  LOCALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
    THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
    TO BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
    THE WEAK NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR.
    
    ...SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LWR OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
    DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS
    EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WITH MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
    DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG AND
    SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS SEASONABLY HIGH...AND DESTABILIZATION
    PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
    ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
    GUSTS.
    
    ..KERR/HART.. 08/28/2014

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