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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  23Apr14 05:00Z  

    
    452 
    ACUS01 KWNS 230547  WSI DDS:230547
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 230546
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
    
    VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
    TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
    WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
    TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
    EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
    UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
    THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
    ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
    THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
    THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
    AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.
    
    ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
    THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
    OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
    NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
    AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
    WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
    POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
    ACROSS CNTRL TX. 
    
    LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
    GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
    TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
    KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
    BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
    OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
    PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
    UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
    QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
    HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
    OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.
    
    FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
    LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
    HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
    BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
    SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
    EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
    STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
    00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
    INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
    A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
    TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
    A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
    HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.
    
    ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  23Apr14 05:00Z  

    
    452 
    ACUS01 KWNS 230547  WSI DDS:230547
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 230546
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
    
    VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
    TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
    WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
    TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
    EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
    UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
    THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
    ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
    THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
    THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
    AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.
    
    ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
    THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
    OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
    NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
    AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
    WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
    POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
    ACROSS CNTRL TX. 
    
    LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
    GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
    TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
    KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
    BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
    OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
    PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
    UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
    QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
    HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
    OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.
    
    FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
    LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
    HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
    BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
    SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
    EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
    STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
    00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
    INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
    A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
    TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
    A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
    HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.
    
    ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014

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