Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  25Jan15 16:00Z  

    
    580 
    ACUS01 KWNS 251621  WSI DDS:251621
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 251619
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1019 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
    
    VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
    SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
    
    ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
    WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS NRN
    AR UPR VORT CONTINUES E INTO THE MID-TN VLY BY EVE...AND UPSTREAM
    JET STREAK NOW OVER OK DIGS SE INTO E TX/LA. THE THUS-RECONFIGURED
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ESE INTO WRN GA BY 12Z
    MON...ASSUMING A NEARLY-NEUTRAL TILT.
    
    AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED NEAR ST LOUIS
    SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE AND GRADUALLY TIGHTEN WITH TIME...WITH A
    TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS TO EXTEND SSW FROM
    THE CENTER LATER TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS
    EARLY MON AS A SECONDARY CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE
    ALONG THE NC CST.
      
    ...TN VLY/SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...
    A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WDLY SCTD /
    EPISODIC TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS
    AND TN VLYS...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST DCVA AHEAD OF LEAD UPR VORT. THE
    BANDS SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
    AXIS NOW OVER THE MS DELTA REGION OF NE AR-NW MS...AND/OR ALONG
    STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT JUST TO ITS WEST...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING
    E OR ESE WITH THESE FEATURES INTO EARLY TNGT.
    
    BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCANT. BUT SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL
    OF STRONG MID-LVL FORCING AND COLD ADVECTION /500 MB TEMPS FALLING
    TO AOB MINUS 20 C/ WITH QUASI-LINEAR LOW-LVL UPLIFT SUGGESTS
    POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN
    TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER. STRENGTH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF LOW
    TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 100 KTS IN
    MS/...FURTHER SUGGESTS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
    LOCALLY DMGG WIND. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND COMPARATIVELY COOL
    ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DURATION/EXTENT OF
    ANY SVR THREAT.
    
    ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 01/25/2015

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