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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  16Sep14 19:00Z  

    
    152 
    ACUS01 KWNS 161957  WSI DDS:161958
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 161956
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0256 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING
    OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
    THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
    HAIL EVENTS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
    WESTERN MISSOURI.
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON-TRACK WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
    ADJUSTMENTS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HAVE SHIFTED/EXPANDED THE
    5 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WITH STORMS
    FORMING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE EXPANDED/ADDED LOW-END SEVERE
    PROBABILITIES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
    MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE S/SEWD WITHIN A
    MODEST NWLY FLOW REGIME ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANDING EML
    PLUME FROM THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS.
    
    ..GRAMS.. 09/16/2014
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF A TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...A
    RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT
    LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
     SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL
    BAROCLINIC ZONE AND N EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF
    AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
    BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
    DIFFUSE REINFORCING SURFACE FRONT...WHERE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
    OVERLAP A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
    THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
    SPREAD NWD INTO THE SW STATES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    ODILE.
    
    OVERNIGHT...A SUBTLE SPEED MAX WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SD THIS MORNING
    TO THE MID MO VALLEY.  THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SWLY LLJ RESPONSE AND
    SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WAA ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
    A FEED OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE FROM THE W AND SW
    WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
    SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...WILL
    MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
    ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

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