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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  20Oct14 05:00Z  

    
    121 
    ACUS01 KWNS 200544  WSI DDS:200606
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 200542
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1242 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
    
    VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
    INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
    THE OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    SEMI-AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
    CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
    INLAND/EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CA/ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
    TONIGHT...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
    GREAT LAKES VICINITY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED...MULTIPLE AREAS OF AT LEAST A LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
    ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS.
    
    ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
    A WEAKENING/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
    TO INFLUENCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
    REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
    GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /15 KT OR
    LESS/.
    
    ...OH VALLEY...
    LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN VICINITY OF A
    SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE
    MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING/FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
    ACROSS PARTS OF OH AND THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
    EVENING.
    
    ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OFFSHORE/NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
    OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VIA LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR/BEHIND AN
    INLAND-MOVING FRONTAL BAND.
    
    ..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/20/2014

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