Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  03Mar15 12:00Z  

    
    520 
    ACUS01 KWNS 031251  WSI DDS:031251
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 031249
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0649 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015
    
    VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
    MID SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
    WEST TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
    COLORADO.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    CONUS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY
    PROGRESSIVE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS
    NRN PLAINS AND SWRN STATES...THROUGH WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
    TRANSIT.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW EVIDENT IN
    MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NWRN BAJA -- IS
    EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO NRN BAJA AND SWRN AZ THROUGH 00Z...THEN
    WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO NM...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SRN SONORA BY
    12Z.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION -- INITIALLY LOCATED
    OVER SRN ID AND NRN NV -- MOVES SEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH
    PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM TROUGHS -- NOW OVER NRN MB AND NR SK -- ARE FCST
    TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATHS TOWARD 12Z POSITIONS OVER FAR
    WRN QUE AND ERN ND/NWRN MN RESPECTIVELY.
    
    AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE NRN-STREAM
    PERTURBATIONS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM FAR NWRN ONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN
    MN...ERN SD...N-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO
    PROCEED SEWD AND EWD...REACHING UPPER GREAT LAKES...SRN IL...CENTRAL
    OK AND NERN NM BY 00Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
    NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER WV...MID TN...SRN AR...AND W-CENTRAL TX.
    
    ...AR...MID SOUTH...LOWER OH VALLEY...
    CONVECTIVE PRECIP...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO
    WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
    PRIMARILY N OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONT.  BY THIS
    TIME...ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
    ALONG AND ABOVE STABLE LAYER TO FORCE PARCELS TO LFC. ALTHOUGH
    BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED -- E.G. MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 400
    J/KG -- SOME CAPE MAY EXTEND BRIEFLY INTO THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE
    FOR LTG GENERATION.
    
    WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD
    OVER AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
    MS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF/VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
    RULED OUT.  THOUGH OCCURRING IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
    SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
    LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINATION OF CAPE-DEPTH SUPPRESSION BY WEAK
    LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FOCI FOR LIFT INDICATE
    THUNDER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
    
    ...W TX...
    PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENABLE
    SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMIDST
    GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. 
    SFC HEATING WILL BE MUTED BENEATH PERSISTENT/LONG-FETCH CLOUD PLUME
    NOTED ON IR IMAGERY.  DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...VERY WEAK
    INSTABILITY WILL RENDER THIS AREA VERY MARGINAL FOR A THUNDER
    OUTLOOK...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG.
    
    ...NRN AZ TO WRN CO...
    ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
    DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTN.  COMBINATION OF MRGL
    LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
    COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RELATED TO
    LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD YIELD ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED 100-300
    J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
    PRODUCTION.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
    LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
    
    ..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/03/2015

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