Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  02Mar15 20:00Z  

    
    782 
    ACUS01 KWNS 022001  WSI DDS:022001
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 022000
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0200 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015
    
    VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
    
    ...SOUTHWEST STATES...
    MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS BASED ON LATEST
    OBSERVATIONS/GUIDANCE. SEVERAL AREAS OF SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
    SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER CALIFORNIA...WHILE DEVELOPING
    ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA.
    ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
    EXPECTED.
    
    ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
    WITH CLOUD TOPS HAVING WARMED WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR
    ADVECTION REGIME...THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
    NEGLIGIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED
    TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL FORCED ASCENT.
    
    ..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015/
    
    ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
    LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
    CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
    SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
    ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
    LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
    SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
    CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
    SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.
    
    WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
    FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
    BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
    ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
    EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
    DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
    WEAK/ABSENT.
    
    ...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
    SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
    OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
    ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
    25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
    INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
    BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
    AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
    MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
    WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
    SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
    IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
    FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
    LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.
    
    FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
    LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
    BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
    DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
    INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
    
    ...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
    MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
    AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
    OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS. 
    ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
    LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
    SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.

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