Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook - Severe Risk
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  30Jul14 05:00Z  

    
    499 
    ACUS01 KWNS 300546  WSI DDS:300546
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 300544
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1244 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
    
    VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
    NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    
    A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY WITH AN
    ASSOCIATED LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF NORTH
    AMERICA. A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THIS
    BROADER-SCALE REGIME...THE MOST SALIENT OF WHICH TO SEVERE TSTM
    DEVELOPMENT IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE
    CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR THE OK-AR BORDER BY 31/12Z. A WEAK SURFACE
    LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE SEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
    SHOULD BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
    
    ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
    
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START
    OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OK. RESIDUAL CLOUD
    COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
    BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OVER W-CNTRL TX TO YIELD A PRONOUNCED
    BAROCLINIC ZONE BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED
    WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER WIDELY
    SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL
    DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK.
    
    WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
    PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL
    YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A
    VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
    SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM
    ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
    SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
    TORNADO. EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SPREAD ESEWD ALONG THE
    RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER
    TONIGHT.
    
    SHOULD LATER DATA INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN THAT CURRENTLY
    FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME
    NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
    
    ..MEAD/SMITH.. 07/30/2014
Day 1 Convective Outlook/Bulletin

Most recent data in the last 24 hours

  KWNS  30Jul14 05:00Z  

    
    499 
    ACUS01 KWNS 300546  WSI DDS:300546
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 300544
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1244 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
    
    VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
    NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    
    A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY WITH AN
    ASSOCIATED LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF NORTH
    AMERICA. A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THIS
    BROADER-SCALE REGIME...THE MOST SALIENT OF WHICH TO SEVERE TSTM
    DEVELOPMENT IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE
    CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR THE OK-AR BORDER BY 31/12Z. A WEAK SURFACE
    LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE SEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
    SHOULD BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
    
    ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
    
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START
    OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OK. RESIDUAL CLOUD
    COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
    BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OVER W-CNTRL TX TO YIELD A PRONOUNCED
    BAROCLINIC ZONE BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED
    WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER WIDELY
    SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL
    DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK.
    
    WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
    PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL
    YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A
    VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
    SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM
    ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
    SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
    TORNADO. EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SPREAD ESEWD ALONG THE
    RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER
    TONIGHT.
    
    SHOULD LATER DATA INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN THAT CURRENTLY
    FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME
    NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
    
    ..MEAD/SMITH.. 07/30/2014

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