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Poll: McAuliffe has lead among Va likely voters

5:25 AM, Aug 21, 2013   |    comments
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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - In a gubernatorial race where Virginia voters are putting the trust issue foremost, a new statewide poll says Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a clear lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli.

Quinnnipiac University's just-released survey of 1,129 likely voters found that 48 percent supported McAuliffe to 42 percent who backed Cuccinelli, the state attorney general.

The poll is based on telephone interviews from Aug. 14-19. McAuliffe's lead is just outside the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Trustworthiness was the respondents' top concern as 93 percent of respondents ranked it as very important or extremely important to them. Forty-two percent considered Cuccinelli trustworthy while 43 percent said he's not. Thirty-nine percent found McAuliffe trustworthy compared to 36 percent who said he isn't.

Below, see the exact questions on the poll and results to those questions. You can find more information at http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were

Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe or Cuccinelli?

(Table includes leaners)

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

McAuliffe            48%     6%    92%    42%    45%    50%    42%    74%

Cuccinelli           42     90      1     44     46     38     50      7

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      2      2      1      4

DK/NA                 9      4      6     12      8      9      6     15

 

                     WHITE........................................

                     COLLEGE DEG   RELIGION..........

                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   None   Men    Wom

 

McAuliffe            46%    38%    32%    42%    65%    36%    48%

Cuccinelli           46     54     59     53     29     57     44

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      1      2      1

DK/NA                 5      7      8      4      4      6      7

 

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......

                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+

 

McAuliffe            50%    45%    52%    43%    50%    50%    45%    47%

Cuccinelli           41     44     37     49     42     42     42     44

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3      1      1      2      1      1

DK/NA                 7      9      8      7      7      7     11      8

 

                     EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO VOTE Q25, 26, 27

                     Hon-   Expr   Under-

                     esty   -nce   Stndg

 

McAuliffe            45%    34%    52%

Cuccinelli           44     57     36

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1

DK/NA                 9      7     10

 

 

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or

is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen q1)?

IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS..................

                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............

                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1..

                     Tot    McAuliffe     Cuccinelli

 

Def vote for cand    76%    78%           74%

Unlikely to change   12     12            11

Good chance change   10      9            11

DK/NA                 3      1             4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS..................

                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............

                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1..

                     Tot    McAuliffe     Cuccinelli

 

Very enthusiastic    25%    23%           27%

Smwht enthusiastic   57     55            58

Not so enthusiastic  13     15            10

Not enthus at all     4      5             3

DK/NA                 2      2             1

 

 

2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable            34%     6%    67%    30%    32%    36%    29%    60%

Unfavorable          33     60      5     37     38     29     39      6

Hvn't hrd enough     31     34     28     31     29     33     30     34

REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      1      -

 

 

3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable            35%    73%     6%    35%    39%    32%    40%    11%

Unfavorable          41      6     73     41     38     44     39     54

Hvn't hrd enough     22     20     20     22     23     22     20     34

REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      2      1      1

 

 

5. Is your opinion of E.W. Jackson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable             8%    13%     2%     9%    11%     6%    10%     3%

Unfavorable          16      6     27     15     20     12     15     19

Hvn't hrd enough     75     81     69     75     68     81     74     77

REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      1      1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable             8%     4%    15%     5%     8%     8%     8%     9%

Unfavorable           4      4      3      4      4      4      4      4

Hvn't hrd enough     87     91     81     91     88     87     88     85

REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1      -      1

 

 

7. Is your opinion of Mark Herring favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable             8%     2%    15%     7%     9%     8%     8%     7%

Unfavorable           3      4      1      3      4      2      3      5

Hvn't hrd enough     88     92     83     88     87     88     88     87

REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      2      1      1

 

 

8. Is your opinion of Mark Obenshain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Favorable            12%    15%     5%    14%    13%    10%    13%     4%

Unfavorable           6      5     10      5      8      5      7      3

Hvn't hrd enough     82     80     84     81     79     84     80     92

REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1      1      -

 

 

23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Approve              42%    81%    12%    42%    46%    39%    49%    19%

Disapprove           46     11     76     48     45     48     42     66

DK/NA                11      8     12     11     10     13      9     15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25. (INTRO Q25-27: Thinking about this year's election for governor, for each personal quality I name, please tell me how important it is in your decision of who to support in the election for governor.)

How about the candidate's - experience, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Extremely important  19%    28%    16%    17%    20%    18%    20%    19%

Very important       42     48     43     40     36     48     43     41

Somewhat important   32     22     34     36     36     29     32     34

Not so important      4      2      4      5      4      4      4      3

Not important at all  2      -      2      2      2      1      1      2

DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      -      -      1

 

 

26. How about the candidate's - understanding of the problems of people like you, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Extremely important  44%    37%    50%    43%    41%    46%    40%    62%

Very important       38     44     33     37     37     38     39     31

Somewhat important   16     15     15     15     18     13     19      6

Not so important      2      2      1      2      2      1      1      -

Not important at all  1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -

DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1

 

 

27. How about the candidate's - honesty and trustworthiness, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Extremely important  58%    60%    52%    63%    58%    58%    60%    51%

Very important       35     33     43     29     34     36     34     43

Somewhat important    6      7      4      8      7      6      6      6

Not so important      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1

Not important at all  1      -      -      -      1      -      1      -

DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28. (INTRO Q28-33: Now, I'd like to ask whether you think each of these qualities describes each candidate in the election for governor.)

Do you think Ken Cuccinelli - has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  56%    83%    33%    59%    63%    51%    63%    33%

No                   31      5     54     29     27     35     26     50

DK/NA                13     12     13     12     11     14     11     17

 

 

29. Would you say that Ken Cuccinelli - understands the problems of people like you or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  37%    73%    11%    35%    41%    34%    43%    14%

No                   51     17     79     54     47     55     47     76

DK/NA                11      9     10     11     11     11     10     11

 

 

30. Would you say that Ken Cuccinelli - is honest and trustworthy or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  42%    77%    15%    41%    47%    37%    48%    19%

No                   43     10     69     44     39     47     38     65

DK/NA                15     12     16     15     14     16     14     16

 

 

31. Do you think Terry McAuliffe - has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  46%    29%    71%    40%    45%    47%    44%    58%

No                   34     49     12     40     36     31     36     21

DK/NA                21     23     16     19     19     22     20     22

 

 

32. Would you say that Terry McAuliffe - understands the problems of people like you or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  38%    18%    65%    32%    37%    39%    35%    57%

No                   42     59     19     51     44     39     46     25

DK/NA                20     23     16     17     19     22     20     18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

33. Would you say that Terry McAuliffe - is honest and trustworthy or not?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Yes                  39%    21%    65%    33%    36%    42%    36%    56%

No                   36     52     13     43     40     33     40     21

DK/NA                25     27     22     24     23     26     24     23

 

 

35. What do you think Ken Cuccinelli is spending more time doing in his campaign, explaining what he would do if elected Governor or attacking Terry McAuliffe?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Explaining           32%    47%    20%    32%    35%    28%    34%    23%

Attacking            52     36     62     56     50     55     51     56

DK/NA                16     17     18     12     15     17     15     22

 

 

36. What do you think Terry McAuliffe is spending more time doing in his campaign, explaining what he would do if elected Governor or attacking Ken Cuccinelli?

 

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk

 

Explaining           25%    14%    42%    21%    24%    26%    21%    43%

Attacking            56     67     38     63     57     54     61     35

DK/NA                19     19     20     16     18     20     19     22

 

 

 

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