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Topper's Blog: Playing the odds, Hurricanes, Hurricane season

2:28 PM, Sep 10, 2013   |    comments
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If someone asks you to place a bet on what day there will be a hurricane today is that day. September tenth is statistically the busiest day of the hurricane season. Over the last 110 years there have been forty eight hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin on this date. On September tenth we pretty much stand a fifty percent chance of seeing a hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic basin. Well, today is an exception. We have tropical storm Igor in the south Atlantic. He will become a hurricane but at this writing it looks like that will occur over the weekend.  We have two tropical storms at this time, Gabrielle and Humberto but no hurricanes.

 

We expected an above average season this year with thirteen to twenty named storms, with seven to eleven reaching hurricane status, and three to six of those peaking at 'major' status. Believe or not we have not had a hurricane yet this season. September is statistically the busiest month of the season so we can't rule out ending up below average just yet with three quarters of September and all of October left.